NOAA has released the 2019 Hurricane Season Outlook. Here is a summary of what has been mentioned in the release. Based on this report, its beginning to look similar to the 2018 hurricane season.
This diagram breaks down the key points of the foretasted 2019 Hurricane Season.
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
After an in-depth researching to some of the key factors leading up to the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, experts are calling for a 40 percent chance of a “near-normal” hurricane season. To elaborate, the term “near normal” is based off of the past 30 years of climatology data regarding hurricanes.
The main factor that will influence the Atlantic season this year is the current state of the El Nino pattern of Sea Surface Temperatures that is currently in place. Historically, above normal sea surface temperatures tend to result in more active hurricane seasons.
Weaker Trade winds caused by a wetter African monsoon season will further increase the chances that hurricanes will form in the development zone for the Atlantic.
The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
- 9-15 Named Storms
- 4-8 Hurricanes
- 2-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
2019 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA’s experts have concluded that there is a 70 percent chance of and “above normal” season for the Eastern Pacific Zone. Again, the phrase “above normal” is based off the previous 30 years of climate data that was used in this analysis.
Similar to the discussion above, the key aspects that were mentioned in the analysis of the Eastern Pacific’s hurricane season the El Nino Conditions. If the El Nino conditions remain the same, or strengthen, this will result in an above normal season for the Eastern Pacific.
The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
- 15-22 Named Storms
- 8-13 Hurricanes
- 4-8 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 100%-180% of the median.
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